As we look ahead to 2060, a concerning reality emerges for Polish cities, notably Poznań and Łódź. Professor Piotr Szukalski works at the Department of Applied Sociology and Social Work at the University of Lodz and specializes in issues at the intersection of demography, social gerontology and social policy. His latest analysis warns of significant changes in population dynamics, with some cities facing a troubling future.
In his report titled “The Demographic Future of Large Cities in Poland,” Prof. Szukalski reveals a sobering tale of declining populations and aging communities. While a few cities like Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Gdańsk, and Rzeszów remain relatively stable due to migration, others, including Poznań and Łódź, face a looming crisis.
Poznań, once vibrant with activity, has seen a steady decline in residents over the last three decades. Despite having around 540,000 people in mid-2023, projections suggest a staggering 76% decrease by 2060. Prof. Szukalski’s analysis also predicts that by the end of this decade, there will be more elderly people in Poznań than children and teenagers, marking a significant shift.
Looking ahead, Poznań’s population is expected to dip below 500,000 by the 2060s, declining to 451.5 thousand by 2050 and 416.8 thousand by 2060. This trend extends to other cities, indicating a future where the elderly outnumber the young. By 2060, around one in ten Poznań residents will be over 80 years old, highlighting the profound societal changes on the horizon.
